It’s every poker players goal and dream to drag the million dollar pots in the biggest cash games or to be sitting at the final table of the World Series with the TV lights shining.  While this is a cool goal and the dream is possible, you can’t expect to go from novice player to big time winner all in one night, one year, or probably your entire lifetime.  It is important to set goals for yourself in poker, but you want to set goals that, though challenging, are also likely to be accomplished with some work.

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Many players will never develop their abilities beyond the level of occasional hobbyist, which is fine, especially if they realize where their skill level lies.  If you can admit that you’re playing for fun, then a $200 losing session doesn’t hurt that bad.  It’s the price of a night out and the fun you got to have making jokes with your table mates was worth the price.  However, if you only have the ability of a novice and expect to win like a pro, you’re in for a lifetime of frustration.

If you develop your skills to the point where you’re a winning player and can supplement your day job with some poker earnings, it is probably not the time to quit the day job because you may have made a big score or two.  Rather, you might want to see how things go over the next year before you even entertain the idea of going “pro.”

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If you keep your expectations in step with your talent level you will always be getting better, but you won’t be nearly as frustrated with the game.  It’s important to have a healthy relationship with poker and an honest assessment of where you stand is the basis for this relationship.

General introduction to Double or Nothing poker sit and goes

The Double or Nothing poker sit and go (often abbreviated as DoN SNG) is a relatively new form of the popular sit and go online poker tournament format characterized by a preset (most commonly 6 or 10) number of players each buying in to the sit and go with a fixed amount of money in exchange for a stack of chips.

As the Double or Nothing term implies,  you either double your buyin or walk away with nothing. In other words, if 10 players buyin with 5$ each, the top 5 finishes will win 10$ each. The payout structure of Double or Nothing SNGs is therefore very different from standard 10 player SNGs where 1st place usually wins 50% of the total prize pool, 2nd place takes 30% and 3rd place 20%.

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This difference in payout structure means that you need to approach Double or Nothing SNGs with a different strategy in order to become a winning player in the long run.

The Independent Chip model

Before going into more detail with the basics of Double or Nothing sit and go strategy we will need an introduction to the Independent Chip Model (abbreviated ICM).

The Independent Chip model is a mathematical model constructed to give you an estimate of the monetary value of the chips you have in a MTT tournament or a SNG. The basic assumption of the Independent Chip model is that an individual player’s probability of winning the tournament is equal to the number of chips the player has divided by the total number of chips in play. So if you have 32% of the chips in play, your probability of winning is 32% and so on. Keep in mind that this is an underlying assumption of the ICM model and as such these probabilities of winning should only be treated as estimations. The ICM model will also calculate the probability a player has of finishing in all other places in the tournament based on his chipstack, the total number of chips in play and the chip distribution among the other players in the tournament.

By estimating the probabilities a player has of finishing in all the positions in a tournament the Independent Chip Model can assign a monetary value to the amount of chips you have. Here’s an example that demonstrates the principle:

You are playing a regular 10 person SNG and have the chip lead. Based on the amount of chips you have, the number of chips in play and the chip distribution of your opponents, the ICM model has estimated your placement probabilities as follows:

• 1st place; pays 50$ 55%
• 2nd place; pays 30$ 30%
• 3rd place; pays 20$ 15%

The monetary value of your chips at this particular stage in the SNG is then simply the sum of the placement probabilities multiplied by the prizes for each placement. In the example above this amounts to 39,5$ (0.55*50$ + 0.3*30$ + 0.15*20$).

The mathematics behind the ICM model are not overly complicated, but nevertheless totally unrealistic to calculate by yourself within the typical 30s time limit available on online tables. As a result there are several pieces of software available which can show your chip stack equity in real time. Simply Google “ICM calculator” and you will get a ton of hits.

Using the ICM model to formulate a winning DoN SNG strategy

Due to the flat prize pool structure in DoN SNGs, there is a big difference in the monetary value of increasing your chip stack as compared to regular SNGs and multi-table tournaments. If you for example end up all in early in a 10 player 10$ Double or Nothing sit and go and double your chip stack, the equity of your chip stack will only increase roughly 5$ from the 10$ starting point to 15$. The remaining 5$ equity from the player you knocked out is divided among the remaining players on the table. In order to make a profit in the long run from a 10$ bet where you win 5$, you need to have a probability of more than 67% to win the the bet (I have written a series of articles that explain more about the relationship between odds, probabilities and EV in poker). Therefore in Double or Nothing Sit and Goes, you should not enter a pot unless you more than 67% probability of winning the pot. This means that you should play tight and wait for good hands. Take advantage of those players who do not understand the mathematics of the game and as a result have a much wider range for calling.

What the ICM model basically tells us is that Double or Nothing poker is all about preserving your chip stack. As a consequence, calling raises with small pocket pairs aiming to hit a set or with suited connectors to hit draws are to be avoided when playing Double or Nothing poker. Calling in general is actually a bad move from a mathematical point of view in these SNGs. Your actions should be dominated by raising or folding.

Playing a large stack in Double or Nothing sit and goes.

If you manage to double your chip stack early on, the equity of your stack will be almost equal to the prize in the tournament. This means that gaining additional chips has almost no added monetary value and as a consequence from a mathematical point of view you should be folding all hands where you are not at least an 80% favorite of winning. This is even more true when you reach the bubble and have a larger than average chip stack. Remember it is not your job to eliminate players when you have a large stack. It is your job to finish in the top 5.

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Playing a small stack in Double or Nothing sit and goes.

If you find yourself with a smaller than average chip stack during the middle or late stages of the tournament, picking up the blinds and antes becomes important. When stealing blinds in a DoN SNG, the trick is to pick out players who have decent size stacks and seem to know the mathematics behind the game. They will almost never call an all in from you because they know they have to be a more than 80% favorite in order to make the call. This is where the power of preserving your chip stack really comes into play. Notice also how the dynamics of a DoN SNG are very different compared to a MTT. In MTTs it is often mathematically correct for the chipleader to call short stack all ins with marginal hands.

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In this article, Steve takes us through the basics of double or nothing SNGs and in particular double or nothing poker strategy.

Double or nothing poker introduction:

Before we get into the details of double or nothing poker strategy, let’s clarify one thing: Double or Nothings are SNGs in which half the players go home empty handed while the other half double up their buy-ins. Why do people play these SNGs? They’re excellent for bankroll building, on account of the increased odds they carry for each individual player. Technically speaking, a Double or Nothing is not that hot a proposition. However, for those with very flimsy bankrolls, these SNGs represent a good way to get their rolls out of the danger zone.

Why am I saying that Double or Nothings are not that great odds-wise? It’s simple mathematics really. If we leave the skill-factor aside, you have a 50% chance of making the money (it’s basically a coin-flip of a chance). If you apply good double or nothing poker strategy and make the money, you do not double up your buy-in. There’s the apparently insignificant matter of the tournament fee, which comes right out of your potential profits, and which kind of ruins the deal for you. Of course, in Double or Nothings your profits are supposed to come from those less skilled than yourself, those willing to give up their buy-ins on senseless calls. One of the advantages you have is that there are many people grinding away at these SNGs and many of them multi-table too. These guys won’t be able to pay as much attention to any one table as they should, so you may squeeze some additional value out of their presence at your table. You can also sign up for a rakeback or a poker prop deal to diminish the effects of the tournament fees.

Double or nothing poker strategy: the early stages:

Double or Nothings are SNGs, so you should use standard SNG strategy as your starting point. The early stages are about tightness and about some aggression. Be extremely demanding of your starting hands, and only commit on rock solid monsters. Keep your eye on your position and aim to preserve your stack. As your tournament life-blood and your only weapon at the Double or Nothing table, your stack will eventually decide whether or not you make it to the money. During the early stages, you’ll be folding a lot, and that gives you a great opportunity to study your opponents. Make your reads, put them on ranges and allow them to knock each other out.

Double or nothing poker strategy: the middle stages:

During the middle stages, you will have to loosen up. Stealing blinds is always important in a SNG and it’s no different in this case either. Keeping your opponents under pressure and stealing their blinds will allow you to maintain a stack size that will not put you in danger of extinction. When stealing blinds, position is the key factor. Don’t steal blinds from early position, or you’ll be the one to end up with the stolen goods. Try not to commit on rags from late position either. I know that blinds stealing is about making moves on less than stellar starting hands, but try to have at least a little bit of equity on your stealing hands, just in case.

Before reading the following section about double or nothing poker strategy, a short introduction to the “farmer” and “fox” terms is in place. As Steve explains, the “fox” is the kind of player who’s focused on winning the tourney, not on sailing into the money and then fading away. Because of that, in a regular tournament, he can take advantage of the bubble tightness of other players.
The “farmer” is a guy who aims for the money. This guy says his utmost goal sis to make it to the money. Once there, he’ll try to go as deep as he can, but because of his pre-bubble stance, he won’t be in a good position to do so.

Double or nothing poker strategy: the late stages:

Because once you make it to the money, the tournament is effectively over, adopting a “farmer” stance instead of a “fox” one during the late stages of the event may be the right way to go. In a regular SNG, I’d always recommend to go “fox” instead of ‘farmer” but in Double or Nothings, the farming poker strategy pays. 99% of players left in contention on the bubble will adopt the same approach though, which means that the tie-breaker here will be schooling. There’s no shame in ganging up on the weakling, and you’ll be required to do just that in order to burst that money bubble. It is obviously imperative that when you reach this stage, you’re not the weakling the other will gang up on.

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Freerolls
Many poker players look down on freerolls because they feel they’re above it.  They view them as meaningless repositories for poor players who can’t afford the buy-in for proper tournaments or cash games. The truth is though that many of the world’s best players exercise games in freerolls because they provide a means of earning cash with zero risk.  Annette Obrestad, winner of the WSOPE 2007, and Tom Durrrr Dwan both built up their monumental bankrolls from freerolls.  With the standard level in these games very low, freeroll tournaments provide an excellent way of making coinage with large guaranteed prizepools.

Freeroll Tournament Strategy
Freerolls encumber poor competition by nature. Because of this, regular MTT strategy is not necessarily the best approach.  With weak players, you should aim to play more aggressive than usual with limited players in the pot, however at the beginning stages of a tournament your starting hand range should only include premium hands such as AK, JJ etc.

The reason freerolls are so easy is because accumulating chips is so easy in the beginning and middle stages of a freeroll tournament. Blind stealing, value shoving and pure bluffs will all work for you.  Accumulating chips at the middle stage in any tournament is one of the most important factors for succeeding.  It affords you the ability to play pure poker and control the table and bluff blinds.  Because of the weakness of players generally in freerolls, you should always bet a flop with 2 opponents or less.  Chances are a half-pot or pot-sized bet will fold any player who’s missed the pot.  In terms of differences between freeroll strategy and regular cash tournaments, I’d also recommend no squeeze play for the sake of a bluff.  Players won’t be at a high enough level to read a strong hand, so faking one will do more bad than good at this level.

The most important feature of winning freeroll players is to be particular where you bluff.  Because many new poker players are curious and will like to call hands down till the river, you’ll find bluffing a player off the pot quite difficult if they’ve managed to hit anything or on a flush draw.  I recommend only bluffing in the early stages of a pot and trying to steal the blinds.  Here you’ll find plenty of value to accumulate chips faster than your opponents.

Final Table Strategy
Most of the players who reach the final table of large freerolls (100 players +) are generally a higher standard than average in the tournament.  Because of this, you should stick to basic MTT strategy with respect to your starting hand range.  When the game becomes short-handed, you should open your range to include suited connectors, any pockets, and any two high cards.  You’ll also notice that most the action at the final table of any tournament occurs preflop.  Players rarely pay to see the flop without shoving their chips all in.  This is basically because the blinds are so high, that anyone with a top starting hand is happy to take the pot down there.  This also happens because of the variance and price of paying to see the flop and missing.

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The term Tilt in poker is used to explain a state of mental  anger, confusion or frustration in which a player uses a poor judgment or strategy.  This usually leads to a player becoming very aggressive (in his/her playing style).

So it’s when we play poker  in a manner that is not in sync with the ‘normal’ or usual way we play our hand.

Discipline

Having the discipline to use what we know is right is critical to wining or cashing in the game.  We know to use patience.  We know to use position.  We know to use information, but on tilt, all of this goes out the window.  It’s not what we know, It’s what we do.

Control

Mental control is necessary to win or cash in poker.  We know tilting is bad, but after a bad beat or 10 straight hands of bad cards, it is difficult to maintain the focus we need to win.  Keeping this control is the most important thing to do after you have learned how to play the game AND it is the hardest to master.  Yes, poker is a game of skill, but it is also a game of luck and most of all it is a game. It’s called POKER.

My biggest Tilt problem

The problem that causes me the most frustration and anger is playing a hand incorrectly when I KNEW what I should have done.  At this point, I have to get up from the table for a few minutes and  cool off.

Another Big Tilt Problem

Playing in a game above your means.  Not staying within the limits of your bankroll.  If you can’t afford to lose the game, you can’t afford to be in it at all.

The Best of us all

The really great players are those that have mastered tilt.  The ones that stay within their limits, give total focus to the game by gathering information, having patience and knowing when to make the ‘move’ (position).

Remember

Over-aggressive actions due to frustration and anger will almost always lead to defeat.

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What is it?
Double or nothing (DoN) tournament, although they have been around for a long time, are becoming more popular as compared to regular Sit N go tournaments.  In short, a DoN tournament is a Single Table Tournament (STT), usually 10 players.  The payout structure makes it “Double or Nothing”.  If you are playing a Double or nothing tournament,  all you have to worry about is coming in 5th.  All players who are left (5th or better) are paid double what they put in to play.  For example, if you put in $4.00 along with nine others then there is $40.00 to split.  The final five are paid $8.00 each and the rest receive nothing.  REMEMBER…there is a rake.

Early Stage Play
Play Tight!  Even decent hands can be folded at this time while you gather information on the other players.  When you spot a player also playing very tight, remember him/her.  Double or nothing tournaments can be considered as “outlast ‘em” tournaments.  The Idea is to keep enough of a chip stack to be around for the final five.  Avoid playing against others whom you have noted are also playing very tight whenever possible.  Chances are they are betting because the have a “premium hand”.  You have to preserve enough chips to make it to the final five.

Middle Stage Play
The blinds will have increased to 50/100 or 75/150 in most cases.  Now POSITION becomes very important.  Since the table is playing tight by now, blind stealing is possible if you have a playable hand ([A,Q] or better)and are in good position.  If you are raised by one of the ‘very tight’ players left, they are most likely playing the way you are and confrontation should be avoided.  I know this sounds like you’ll never play a hand and in many cases you will be mucking 90% of your hands!  Remember…FINAL FIVE!

LATE STAGE PLAY
Avoid being the Bubble Boy
If you have a decent chip stack, you should not be considering an all-in play no matter what your pocket cards are.  With a smaller chip stack, an all-in bet in position and a decent hand will probably take the blinds.  The idea here is to let the others take each other out.
I know this sound totally different from the normal tournament play, but just remember that coming in 5th or first nets you the same result and the tournament is over when there are 5 players left.
Got Questions? go to Q&A for answers.

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Online multi-table tournaments can be the most profitable games for new players.  Becoming increasingly popular, these type of games provides the easiest and fastest means of making a ton of money in poker for minimal risk.  PokerStars recent record breaking tournament for example gave $50,000 to the winner of an event costing only $1 to buy into.
The problem with new players succeeding in tournaments is that they don’t adopt the correct MTT Strategy to maximize their success.

Tournament Strategy
Unlike cash games, where optimal strategy and maximizing your expected value will make you profit; tournament strategy requires something completely different.  In tournaments you need to constantly build your stack to compete with the ever increasing blinds.  Because of this you’ll need to play much more aggressively and take bigger risks.  Blind stealing, value-shoving and overall pure bluffs are all essential to becoming a long term good tournament player.
Along with the playing strategy, you’ll also need have a large enough bankroll to cover the variance in these tournaments.  Most players recommend having a total bankroll of 40 tournament buy-ins.  This means to play $5 tournaments you have be bankrolled with about $200.  This figure maximizes your potential return whilst minimizing the risk.  The reason the figure is so high is because tournaments are notoriously difficult to cash out in.  Many tournaments run up over 1000 entrants – and with less than the top 10% getting paid off you’ll need to beat 1/100 people on average to make money.

Early Stage Strategy
Concentrate on playing only your best hands.  Throw away anything below 10J and never limp from early of middle position.  You’re at a 9 or 10 seated here, so the chances are someone will be raising the pot preflop with a monster hand like AK or QQ which will force you to fold with anything that’s beaten.  Also remember never to play rag ace hands like A7 or A3.  Because you’re almost certain to be beaten by better Ace kickers, you’ll really be relying on hitting two pair or a set with your kicker in order to take down the pot.  You won’t get the pot value to call with these hands, so don’t both.  Another tip to remember is that the blinds don’t represent much at this level; so don’t spend much time worrying about them.

Middle Stage Strategy
Here’s where you need to accumulate the most chips.  Open up your starting hand selection a little more with hands like suited connectors and low pocket pairs in middle or late position.  Try to value shove also in late positions where you have a decent hand.  The chances of players folding are very high, because in order to call you they would have needed a hand that they should have raised to begin with.   For example, in late position with J9 suited you can shove allin.  You’re very unlikely to get called with AK because surely this player would have raised anyway.  Also keep bluffing on weak and dangerous boards and focus your efforts on stealing and protecting the blinds against weak players.

Final Stage Strategy
As the table becomes short-handed remember to open up your starting hand range to include hands like A5 suited or even QJ.  Make sure you learn heads up strategy also.  The difference between 1st and 2nd place can be huge – up to 10% of the tournament prizepool. So don’t bother settling for 2nd place when you could earn hundreds or even thousands of dollars more.

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So how did I do it?

• I stayed out of trouble by mostly playing solid hands. When I stole the blinds, I did it with playable hands and small bets. I picked up many pots by making small probe bets on flops when I was up against 2 or 3 opponents.
• I won when I got my chips in as favorite.
• The big stack knocked out almost everyone on the final table except me. During the heads-up I was lucky once with A6 vs. 99. In addition I managed to fold when my opponent had good hands and get my chips in when I had good hands and my opponent had medium hands.

Here’s some of the key hands I played during the late stages of the tournament.

93 in the small blind and one limper. I call and the flop is 93A. I bet the pot and the limper calls. Turn is a 9 and I get all my chips in against my opponent’s smaller full house with pocket 3′s. Lucky turn for me.

With 15 players left I raise 3xBB from the button with K10 to steal the blinds. The flop is KQ7 and I lead out with a less than half sized pot bet. My opponent re-raises to put me all in. Top pair is usually good against one opponent but since my tournament life was on the line I took my time to analyze the hand.Here’s what I asked myself:

Which hands do I beat?:

• Pocket pairs like 88, 99, 1010 and JJ. I did not consider these hands likely since my opponent only called my preflop raise.
• J10 and Kx, where x is smaller than a 10.
• Pure bluff (according to Harrington there’s always a 10% probability that your opponent is bluffing)

Which hands beat me?:

• KJ, KQ and AK. KJ and KQ are most likely since AK would probably have re-raised me preflop.
• Slow-played AA, KK and QQ. KK is not that likely since I already have one K.

Since an overweight of hands had me beat I ended up folding the hand, and my opponent showed KQ. Good fold.

With 11 players left I raised with QQ on the button. BB called and under the gun (UTG) went all in. Both UTG and BB have me covered. I figured UTG could make this play with both medium pocket pairs and high cards. And since the BB only called my raise I did not put him on AA or KK. I therefore called the all in and so did the BB. Turned out both the BB and UTG had AK and I won the pot, tripling my stack.

There you have it…..my recipe for an online poker tournament win:-)

I received a reply from Party Poker’s player support and immediately started laughing. Their explanation to my 50$ bonus question is so cryptic, that I have a hard time deciphering what they are on about. What do you think?

Dear Mark,

Thank you for contacting us.

I would like to confirm that you can cash out your entire available balance of 502.57 USD.

As for the *RCCASH50B* you claimed on 19-Dec-2009, it was marked ‘Exhausted’ on 24-Dec-2009 05:46:40 ET as the last bonus amount was lost in play then. Let me still inform you that all bonuses, called ‘Cash Out Restricted’, allow the players to use the bonus amount to play with it. However, there is one restriction. It is that the system would automatically take the bonus amount first. So, at first you had 50.00 USD. In time, it took only from your bonus amount.

The bonus you received would never claim the winnings. If, for example, you have taken 5.00 USD into a game, the bonus would have dropped to 45.00 USD. By winning 15.00 USD from the game in this example, the bonus would be again the maximum of 50.00 USD and 10.00 USD would be winnings that cannot be claimed for bonus recovery, even you if you loose the bonus amount. Then you take another 5.00 USD, but loose them this time- the bonus drops to 45.00 USD, but you still have 10.00 USD available balance.

This goes on either until 250 Party Points are earned or the bonus amount drops down to 0.00 USD. This is exactly what happened with your bonus- it dropped to 0.00 USD and is now considered as lost or ‘Exhausted’. So, no further bonus amount will be claimed back on expiry and there is no remaining bonus amount to release for cash outs.

To summarize, in case you win a game the system would recover bonus amount and it would not use the already available winnings to recover it. For that reason, you had available amount of 22.00 USD at the time the last bonus amount was lost and still the bonus was considered as exhausted.

Last, I would like to promote our excellent Danish support. In order to get in touch with them, please write us directly in Danish and they will reply to you.

In case you have any further queries, please do not hesitate to contact us. We will be more than happy to help you.

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• Tournament bust-out: PokerStars 20$ 20000$ guranteed. I raise preflop with AK. Table donk reraises, I push and he calls with K4 off suit. Flop 567, turn 2, river 4.
• Tournament bust-out: AA vs 99 and 55, turn was a 9
• SNG bust-out: AA vs KK, QQ vs 77
• Tournament bust-out: Nut flush on turn loses to full house on river
• SNG bust-out: KK vs QJ, AA vs KJ, QQ vs 44
  
• Tournament bust-out: AA vs KK, AQ vs A3, AA vs 99 and KJ, AQ vs A5

Almost all of the bust-outs above have been all in preflop hands, where I got my money in as a favorite. I think the list above covers about 80-90% of the tournaments and roughly 40% of the SNGs I have played in December. Usually my reaction to suck-outs depend on how many I experience during an evening of poker. The more suck-outs, the faster my mental health deteriorates.

Yesterday, when I busted out late in three tournaments with AA vs KK, AQ vs A3 and AA vs 99 and KJ, I was really angry. I punched the table with my fist and molested a water bottle. It took me about half an hour to calm down again. As I went to bed, I contemplated why I even bother playing poker tournaments. Play well for 4 hours and then bust out as favorite. Where’s the attraction?

As you will know if you’ve other articles on this blog, I have several times announced long term breaks from poker, and never been able to live up to them for more than a week at a time. This is actually very unlike my normal behavior. I once stopped eating candy and cakes for 3 years, just to see if I could do it. And I could…

I think I keep on playing due to a combination on stubbornness (I want those final tables and believe I have the skills to reach them) and a lack of better things to due, when I have time to kill. Today is no different. Despite my mental meltdown yesterday, here I am playing poker once again.

I know many of you will look at my list of suck-outs and think “what’s he whining about, that’s a normal day for me at the tables?”. The rational part of my brain is also very much aware of the fact that poker is all about probability. AA loses to a smaller pair 1 out of 5 times and so on. The problem is, I don’t think rationally when I bust out as favorite. I get emotional. Anger fills me. I feel robbed. I feel like the biggest injustice has just been done towards me. I feel like I will never make it to a final table again. I feel like there is no point in being skilled….it’s all about luck.

So here are my questions to you tournament players out there:

• How do you deal with tournament suck-outs?
• How do you maintain your mental health when you are on a losing streak?
• How do you avoid feeling a sense of despair when time and time again, many hours of tournament play are lost to suck-outs?
  
• How do you convince yourself that you are on the right track, and it’s only a matter of time before those final tables start appearing?