Comments on: Online poker tournament statistics: player exit percentage

By: Mark

Mark — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 06:05:36 +0000

I agree...that's why the numbers in the tables don't include the final table, where I assumed the variance to be the largest. I wanted to keep things relatively simple... Mark’s last blog post..U.S. Waves the Hoover Flag

By: Conrad T. Gates

Conrad T. Gates — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 21:03:37 +0000

In fact, the final table effect that I mentioned is not really related to horizontal curve, but more so to larger variance on the right side than left side. If you represented variance.
Or to say that in simpler terms. If there are 100 participants in a tournament, you could be fairly certain of when there will be 80 left, given the factors; but you will be much more uncertain of when there will be 5 left for example.
This is due to 2 effects (i) the more time passes, the more uncertainty, and (ii) late stage play is less predictable as far as time is concerned.

By: Mark

Mark — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:53:35 +0000

Hi Conrad

You are spot on with your additional factors. I have only investigated regular NL hold’em tournaments at Full Tilt Poker with buyins up to about 20$.
Could be interesting to make a more detailed analysis including more of the factors you mention.

By: Conrad T. Gates

Conrad T. Gates — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:31:48 +0000

Interesting analysis.
Obviously such results depend also on a number of additional factors:
1/ on the blind/ante structure in relation to initial stack,
2/ on the buy-in, low buy-in might have looser play and faster eliminations, I guess,
3/ on the poker site, smaller site may have more fish than pokerstars,
4/ on the day of the week, the weekend crowd being different from Tuesday early birds.
Also the time for the final table to unfold will vary a lot. That is why the right end side of the curve is nearly horizontal.

By: McTap03

McTap03 — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 12:26:04 +0000

Good article Mark. I always had an idea about this, now there is proof. Good thing to know the next time I decide to play in an MTT. McTap03’s last blog post..March Goals

By: Mark

Mark — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 06:16:36 +0000

Hi Steve Thanks for your feedback. Glad to hear my math holds up. Mark’s last blog post..Poker tournament bonus search

By: Steve Brogan

Steve Brogan — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 19:08:02 +0000

Your math is pretty much right on. I was just in a tournament with 947 entrants. I was out after 5:15 but the tourney lasted just about six hours. That is good information to know. That way you can pace yourself, make sure you have refreshments and breaks and exercise as needed. This is just as bad as being in an airplane for a long period of time. Perhaps worse, when you add the stress levels.