Poker bankroll management, building and strategy – online poker guide

Top 5 Poker hands on Youtube

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Pro, Poker Top 10 Lists | 1 Comment

Submitted by Thomas, this article belongs to the Poker Top 10 list series.

There are thousands of poker hands on Youtube, but the 5 poker hands below are definitely spectacular enough to belong on a top 5 poker hands on Youtube list.

James Akenhead vs Grant Hinkle
This hand takes place at the heads-up stage of a $1,500 No-limit Hold’em event at the 2008 and see England’s James Akenhead locking horns with America’s Grant Hinkle.

Akenhead had been much the better player heads-up and Hinkle was starting to feel the pressure and made a preflop raise to 350,000 holding the lowly hand of Td4d. Akenhead looked down and found AcKh and made it $1,200,000 to play, prompting Hinkle to move all-in on a bluff. Akenhead instantly called and was in good shape to take a 10:1 chip lead.

However, the flop completely changed that as it came down ThTs4h, giving Hinkle a full house. To make matters worse the turn was the last ten in the deck, giving Hinkle quad tens, the win and $831,279. Akenhead had to make do with the $520,219 runner-up prize money.

Phil Ivey vs Paul Jackson

This hand shows the great hand reading skills of Phil Ivey, arguably the best poker player ever. The hand takes place at the heads-up stage of the 2005 Monte Carlo Millions and sees Ivey hold a 4:1 chip lead over Paul Jackson.

Jackson open-limps on the button with 6s5d and Ivey raises to 60,000 with Qh8h, which Jackson calls. The flop of JcJh7c misses both players but they both decide they want the pot and start bluffing at each other. Ivey starts proceedings by firing out 80,000, prompting Jackson to make it 170,000. Not to be outdone, Ivey makes another raise, this time to 320,000 but amazingly Jackson does not give up, instead makes it 470,000 to play!

Ivey goes into the tank for a minute or so before announcing he is all-in, causing Jackson to quickly release his hand. A truly remarkable hand.

Isaac Haxton vs Ryan Daut

After fighting his way back from a 3:1 chip disadvantage to lead by 2:1 at the Caribbean Adventure, Ryan Daut – who is a coach for one of the leaders in online poker tutorials- completed in the small blind with 7c5s and his opponent, Isaac Haxton checked with the second worst heads-up hand possible, 3d2d.

The flop missed both players completely and Haxton check/called a 300,000 bet from Daut. The turn brought the King of diamonds, making the board Qh4hAcKd and both players checked. But when the Qc arrived on the river both players thought they were entitled to the already substantial pot.

Haxton attempted to buy the pot by betting 700,000 but Daut quickly made it 2,000,000 to go. Haxton hung his head on the table and thought for around 90 seconds before announcing he was all in. There was no way Daut could call with his seven-high and he quickly mucked before being shown the extraordinary bluff from Haxton.

Oliver Hudson vs Sammy Farha

Oliver Hudson, son of actress Goldie Hawn, was eliminated on the very first hand of the 2005 World Series of Poker Main Event at the hands of Sammy Farha.

Farha opened to 200 holding AhTd and Hudson, liking his black tens, made it 450, a bet that Farha called. The flop was an unbelievable AcAdTh giving both players a full house! Both elected to slowplay their hand and check but the fireworks started with the arrival of the Qc on the turn.

First Hudson lead out for 300, Farha quickly raised to 1,300 and Hudson moved all-in. Farha instantly called and when both players revealed their hands it was apparent Hudson was drawing completely dead. $10,000 wasted in less than five minutes!

Jennifer Harman vs Corey Zeidman

Corey Zeidman inflicted a true bad beat on Jennifer Harman during the 2005 WSOP Main Event. Harman raised preflop to 200 holding QdQc and was called by Zeidman with 9d8d and Davis with As6d.

The flop came down TsJdQh, giving Harman a set of queens and Zeidman a flopped straight. Davis checked then folded after seeing Harman bet 500, Zeidman raise to 2,000 and Harman call. The turn was the ten of diamonds, filling Harman’s set into a full house and making her an almost certain winner in the hand. Zeidman lead out for 1,000 and Harman raised to 3,000. After much deliberation Zeidman called, not knowing he only had one card that could win him the pot.

Amazingly it arrives on the river in the shape of the 7d, giving him a straight flush! Harman bet 3,000 which was enough to put her opponent all-in, and he obviously quickly called and showed the nuts, prompting Harman to leave her seat at the table in disbelief.

You could be posting your articles on the Poker Bankroll Blog. Read all about it here.

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Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Pro, Poker Top 10 Lists

3 bet poker strategy

Sunday, March 7th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Strategy | No Comments

Submitted by Steve, this article belongs to the Poker Strategy series.

There are countless amounts of spots at the online  poker tables where utilizing the three bet properly will allow you to chip up hopefully without going to showdown. When I say without going to showdown I am talking about making a bluff move with a nothing hand like 45 offsuit preflop. Before I discuss this theory in detail I’d like to explain what a three bet actually is.

3 bet stealing preflop

Here’s a few more ways to get chips when you are deep in a tournament. I recommend using these moves ONLY when you have acquired reads on your table and adjusted to your opponents tenancies. If you are at a super aggro table, you might want to skip using these steal moves. But lets face it, if you’re a good player, you can tell when players are just trying to fold to make the money and protect their stacks. Now have you ever sat at the table with that guy that always repops you when you raise taking the action away from you preflop, always seems to be raising your blinds and your folding because you pick up 29 suited. But lets face it here, poker tournaments aren’t won by sitting back and waiting for pocket AA’S. Turning your nothing hands into a situation where you can potentially represent that you have a hand even when you don’t, and get your opponents to fold.

Well what is a 3 Bet resteal ? The word pretty much dictates the action that you must take. You are stealing a pot from your opponent by reraising his raise when the situation allows you to do so . These moves are usually used deep in the tournament once you build your stack.  This is where the fun starts! The antes are high, the blinds are going up and this means you are closer to the money!! So now is the time all the weak donkeys who went crazy in the beginning should shine right? Wrong! Deepstack poker with the pressure on is about playing without any pressure on you and making sure you put the pressure on the other players by raising and reraising. You must also be fully aware aware that you want to control the table. There are things that you can do such as 3bet, under the gun steal, button steal and reraise a raiser in an attempt to defend your big blind. Listing these moves you need to understand that performing tricky moves like this leaves you vulnerable postflop. Players have a tendency to tighten up and make a lot of mistakes when the tournament is deep and they have invested a time commitment. Throw in the fact that this might be their first deep run in a tournament . Keep the pressure on! If you use your best judgment and be a selective aggressive poker player, you will succeed.

Utilizing the 3 bet is a necessity and a huge part in advancing your tournament game. So what exactly is a 3 bet? When someone raises the pot and you reraise their raise, you are three betting your opponent.  Now three betting can spark a tournament players creativity because you generally don’t always need a hand to three bet. Using the 3 bet as a steal move is a way to get chips in a tournament hopefully without going to a flop. Three betting gives you a lot better of a chance to take down the hand whether its preflop or postflop. Since you took the initiative to put the pressure on your opponent, if they call you but miss the flop, you can continuation bet and have a good chance to take down the pot right there without showdown. Now Three betting light is when you are reraising your opponent with any two cards and use the three bet as a steal. Now when I say light I mean any two cards. You have to make sure there are no short stacks at the table that are capable shoving on you because they are getting desperate. This move is based on the thought process that most people raise when its folded to them and they will raise fairly light in an attempt to get in the action. Keep in mind it takes a pretty strong hand to raise and call a reraise as long as your three bet is sized properly. There are a few solid positions at the table that the three bet can be used to your full advantage.

Three betting to defend your big blind

How many times in tournaments have you gone completely card dead and someone consistently raises your big blind and you fold because you’re not calling with 45 offsuit. Instead of just folding in those situations you can pick a good time to three bet your opponents open raise. The ideal situation would be when its folded to someone in late position and they raise your blind . The button and small blind fold, leaving you heads up with your opponent preflop and a rag hand. Now faced with a raise most people might just throw their garbage hands away which most of the time is correct. But if you are mixing up your play and taking chances you want to be picking up these pots to increase your chipstack. Again remember, this move is a steal move so your cards are irrelevant. You are not playing the strength of your hand you are playing the situation. Another benefit of three betting your opponents out of the big blind is of you do it enough players might stop raising your blinds light since you are defending them and this might lead to more walks. You are just playing the fact that you are taking the lead in the hand and being aggressive preflop, allowing you to take down pots without going to a flop. The best situation to resteal is when you are pretty deep and your opponent has a medium sized stack and is raising into you. You don’t want to resteal someone who is desperate and will most likely come over the top of your reraise. Try to pay attention to who is raising a lot and if the person raised and folded to someone else’s reraise. You can pick up valuable pots and turn a hand that most people will fold into a hand where you can ship chips into your stack.

Defending button

There are a few things to pay attention to when trying to defend your big blind. Before you decide to reraise your opponent make sure he has enough chips left behind if he makes the fold. The same thought process goes for reraising your big blind. The value of three betting your button with any two cards as a steal move is the fact that you have position postflop and if you get called u can possibly continuation bet or check-raise the flop and take down a pot with a nothing hand. The problem with three betting on the button is that it’s sometimes and obvious steal move. Good player might pick up on it but you generally don’t have to worry about it if you have are good with your postflop play. The beauty about three betting your button is the simple fact that if you have position on your opponent for the remainder of the hand. Think about the hand your opponent must hold for him to continue the hand. Sit in your opponents chair for a second and look at the situation you are putting him in. Its folded to him and he puts in a raise with any standard opening hand let’s say for instance he’s raising with KJ. Now he’s probably thinking I can take down the blinds with this hand. But now someone reraises him making him think about the strength of his hand. When faced with a reraise most opponents will downgrade the strength of their hand. Now a good player will fold the KJ just because they don’t want to play put of position but the donkey calls you to “see a flop” which is an excuse used by donkeys from the beginning of time. Flop drops 2 5 Q rainbow. He checks and you continuation bet. Little does he know you hold the 78 off suite and he’s actually ahead! If your opponent hits the board, most of the time they will check to you so if he check calls or check raises you, obviously dump your hand. But this is a little trick that can be used in your tournaments. So go try it out and see how many nothing hands you can turn into opportunities to ship chips to your stack.  Get more Information on No Limit Texas Holdem Tournament Strategy at www.pokerbetter.com.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Strategy

What Is Lowball Poker?

Monday, March 1st, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Rules | No Comments

Submitted by Dave, this article belongs to the Poker Rules series.

Lowball poker is the encompassing term used to describe poker games which use lowball hand rankings as opposed to the more conventional high hand rankings systems. When playing lowball poker the nuts is always a low hand such as A-2-3-4-5 or 2-3-4-5-7 but obviously it depends on which game you are playing and which lowball hand rankings system it uses. This article will look at the different lowball poker hand rankings and which games use them.

The most popular system of hand rankings where lowball poker games are concerned is the ace to five system. When playing using the ace to five hand rankings the holy nuts is A-2-3-4-5 also known as the wheel. Aces are low cards and never high cards whilst straights and flushes don’t count for anything. Hands are ranked using their highest card first so 6-5-4-3-2 would always beat A-2-3-4-7 at showdown.

Razz poker uses the ace to five hand ranking system and is by far and away the most well played lowball poker game. Razz became popular in 2004 and was added to online poker sites soon after the first Razz WSOP final table was televised. It’s not a difficult game to learn and if you can already play Seven Card Stud then you should have no problems getting to grips with Razz poker.

The deuce to seven hand rankings system is another lowball system and is used when playing 2-7 Single Draw and 2-7 Triple Draw. The best possible hand is 2-3-4-5-7 because Aces are always high cards and straights and flushes do count as high hands and therefore count against you. Again the highest card is used first to determine the winner.

2-7 Single Draw and 2-7 Triple Draw are both relatively popular online with Triple Draw much more popular in the ring game format and Single Draw more popular as a tournament game. Both games have events at the World Series of Poker and are growing in popularity online and offline as the poker boom continues.

There are two other lowball hand rankings system of note. The first is ace to six which is nearly the same as ace to five accept straights and flushes do count against your hand. The nuts is an unsuited A-2-3-4-6. London Lowball is pretty much the only game which uses the ace to six system. The second system you might encounter is the 2-6 lowball hand rankings. The best possible hand is 2-3-4-5-6, aces are always high cards and straights and flushes don’t count against your hand.

You could be posting your articles on the Poker Bankroll Blog. Read all about it here.

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Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Rules

PokerBRB freeroll and tournament league in March

Sunday, February 28th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Freeroll | No Comments

After successfully changing host from the amateurs at UK2Net to my new best friends at eukHost, the PokerBRB Freeroll and Tournament league starts up again in March.

Previously the PokerBRB tournament league has been all about freerolls, but unfortunately the passwords for these were leaked to multiple online forums specialized in gathering and sharing freeroll passwords for their members. This meant that our regular players often found themselves on tables were most of their opponents were either sitting out or played crazy bingo poker.

As a result we’ve taken an alternative approach to the league in March and focused on low buyin private tournaments.

Here’s the private buyin tournament schedule on Poker Nordica in March:

- Wednesday the 3rd, 10th and 17th of March: 2$ + 0,2$ private buyin tournament
- Friday the 5th, 12th and 19th of March: 3$ + 0,3$ private buyin tournament
- Sunday the 7th, 14th and 21st of March: 5$ + 0,5$ private buyin tournament

If you don’t have a Poker Nordica account, we have a great Poker Nordica bonus deal. Click here for more details.

As usual, when you finish in the money during the month, you get points towards the overall PokerBRB leaderboard.

The top 10 on the leaderboard after the series above has been played will receive a ticket to our sweet monthly final, a 200$ added 5$ +0,5$ buyin SNG on Poker Nordica, the 28th of March.

In addition the 1st place finisher on our leaderboard after the 9 private buyin tournaments have been played will win a one month membership to GrinderSchool. If you don’t know what GrinderSchool is, you can read my review of GrinderSchool here.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Freeroll

Poker analysis software – how to get an edge in online poker

Friday, February 26th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Tools | No Comments

Submitted by Steve, this article belongs to the Poker Tools series.

Many online poker players use specially designed software to analyze their opponents’ and their own game. This makes perfect sense. Software like PokerTracker, Holdem Manager or SNGWiz will help you gain an insight into what goes on at your table, as well as into exactly how you’re coping with the challenge. Rest assured, using PokerTracker or SNGWiz does not make you guilty of data mining. You’ll only make use of data which is available to everyone anyway. What the software does is that it keeps track of things and compiles statistics the average human brain would be incapable to do.

As I said, many people use such software aid while playing, but few people use these programs to their full potential.
Here’s a rundown of the various statistics such programs generate, together with an explanation and pointers towards interpreting the data.

There are two basic types of statistics poker tracking programs such as PokerTracker, Holdem Manager or SNGWiz generate, namely preflop statistics and post-flop ones.

Let’s start with the preflop stats.

The VPIP% (Voluntarily Put Into Pot) expresses the number of times your opponent put money into the pot of his own will (blinds do not count here) in a percentage-based manner. The higher this stat is, the looser your opponent is. The lower the stat, the tighter the opponent. In a 6-max NL Holdem game, a VPIP% should normally be around 19-24%.

The PFR% (Preflop Raise percentage) is an expression of how often your opponent raises preflop. This one will help you asses your opponent’s preflop aggression level. When compared to the VPIP, the PFR can tell you how often an opponent cold-calls, which is an extremely efficient indication of his fish status. You can use all these stats on yourself too, in order to determine how optimal your play is.

3b% (three-bet percentage) is a measure of how often someone re-raises preflop. The lower this stat is, the tighter your opponent is on his three bets. If his 3b% is around 3%, he doesn’t really light three bet, and you can feel safe putting him on AA-10,10, AQs, AKs, whenever he does.

The F3 (fold to 3-bet) is an extremely useful stat. This will tell you how often you can light three bet against an opponent to force him to give up the pot.

Moving on to the post flop stats
The post flop stats are equally interesting, and potentially useful. The AG (a measure of the aggression factor of your opponent) will let you know when you can run roughshod over someone. For the AG, a value of 1-3 is normal. If your guy has an AG of 0.5, put pressure on him and get out of his way when he strikes back. An aggression factor of about 4 means you should take it easy with this guy, pick up a monster and let him tie the noose around his own neck.

WTSD% tells you how often your guy goes all the way after he takes a look at the flop. The normal values are between 20-30% here. Use this stat together with the AG one and find out whether your opponent is weak-tight or tight aggressive.

The CB is the continuation betting %. This stat is only useful when used in conjunction with the PFR%. The lower the PFR% is, the higher the CB should be.

The 2B is a stat describing how often your opponent fires the second barrel on a post-flop bet.

The FC is an extremely valuable stat: it tells you how often your opponent folds his continuation bets. The F2 is how often the guy folds to a second barrel bet.

When you use these stats, please take the sample size into account. The larger the sample size (the more hands you track your target-opponent through) the more relevant these stats will be. Small sample sizes have a tendency to mislead.

These stats can even be used to approximate the rakeback amount that you’ll generate through your real money play. If you’re signed up to a poker prop deal or to a rake rebate deal, you’ll be able to estimate your rake contribution and thus your due rakeback as well.

You could be posting your articles on the Poker Bankroll Blog. Read all about it here.

Check out our Poker Freeroll and Tournament League.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Tools

Poker Bankroll Blog’s Poker Nordica bonus and rakeback deal

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Bonus | 1 Comment

This article belongs to the Poker Bonus series.

Poker Bankroll Blog’s Poker Nordica bonus and rakeback deal

If you sign up for a Poker Nordica bonus and rakeback deal through the Poker Bankroll Blog you will get the best Poker Nordica bonus and rakeback deal available on the market:

• 200% sign-up bonus up to 400$
• 30% rakeback
• 50% monthly reload bonus up to 100$

Introduction to Poker Nordica

Poker Nordica is one of the leading sites on the shared MergeGaming Network which has its head quarters in Australia and its servers Kahnawake, Canada.

The MergeGaming network is one of a select handful of online poker networks who welcome US players.

The MergeGaming network comes in 20th place out of 32 networks on Poker Scout when it comes to player traffic, but don’t worry there’s still more than plenty of players to win $ from.

I have played almost every network available and many different poker sites on each network and in my opinion Poker Nordica has one of the nicest software interfaces both when it comes to their lobby and the actual tables.

Here’s how you sign up for the Poker Nordica bonus and rakeback deal:

1. Clear all cookies on your computer
2. Create a Poker Nordica account through this link: Poker Nordica sign up
3. Use the bonus code “POKERBRB” when you sign up

Bonus and rakeback details

Sign up bonus details

• 200% up to a maximum of 400$
• Released in 10$ increments for every 750 VIPPs you earn
• You earn 10 VIP points for every 1$ of rake or 1$ tournament fee you pay
• The sign up bonus IS NOT deducted from your rakeback

Rakeback

• 30% rakeback
• You get rakeback from tournament fees
• Your rakeback is payed automatically into your account on a daily basis
• There are NO MINIMUM requirements for your rakeback to be payed out. On many other sites there’s a 50-100$ minimum every month, meaning that you will not receive any rakeback if you do not accumulate more than the minimum. On Poker Nordica, you receive all your accumulated rakeback

Think of your Poker Nordica sign-up and bonus as a parallel account to your regular poker account. The more you play, the faster the money will be transferred from your bonus account to your regular poker account.

Additional Poker Nordica Promotions

When you sign up for a Poker Nordica bonus and rakeback deal through the Poker Bankroll Blog you automatically qualify to join the Poker BRB tournament and freeroll league.

Here we run a monthly tournament competition with great monthly finals.

You can find more information on how to sign up for the PokerBRB tournament and freeroll league here.

If you have any questions, feel free to drop me a line at pokerbankrollblog@gmail.com

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Bonus

Playing poker against weak players

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Strategy | 1 Comment

Submitted by Matt, this article belongs to the Poker Strategy series.

It is a well known fact that you will make the vast majority of your money at poker from weak players. It should be common sense that weak players are going to make more mistakes and as a result donate more money to the other players at the table.

Whether you are at the casino or playing poker online you should keep an eye out for players from countries where poker has only just started to become popular, places such as Romania and Hungary and watch out for people asking how to play poker card game. The broken English alone should be enough to have you rubbing your hands together with glee.

Although weak players are a joy to play with, they do need a special approach in order to maximise your profits against them. Firstly, never try to bluff them, ever. Even if you are thinking of representing a possible full house or stronger, your weak player will still call you often enough with second or third pair to make bluffing unprofitable. The reason bluffing does not work is they simply do not understand what you are trying to achieve by bluffing so they call anyway.

When playing against new, weak players you should value bet your hands to the maximum. Hands as weak as top pair are good enough to bet on all three streets against a typical poor player as they will simply call all the way with a wide array of draws, overcards or small pairs.

Listen to what their betting is telling you and act accordingly. They will lack both the knowledge and skills to make a decent bluff so if they have check/called the flop, done the same on the turn and then fire out a substantial bet on the river when the third flush card hits then they will have the flush almost 100% of the time so do not be making any hero calls!

Finally, although they will often suck out on you during a typical session you should try your utmost not to berate them at any point. Moaning about how poorly they played a particular hand will do one of two things, it will either let the player know he made a mistake, a mistake that he will be less likely to make in future or he may simply leave the table to find a less hostile one. Either way you will lose out.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Strategy

Double or Nothing Bankroll Management

Sunday, February 21st, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Bankroll Management | No Comments

This article belongs to the Poker Bankroll Management series.

In this article I will attempt to give you an overview of how to approach bankroll management when it comes to Double or Nothing sit and goes. For your information, Double or Nothing SNGs are a special type of SNG where you either double your money or walk away with nothing. If you want to know more, I recently wrote an article covering the basics of DoN SNGs.

Double or Nothing Bankroll Management

Most SNG experts recommend that your poker bankroll should be at least 50 times as large as the SNG buyin level you’re playing. In Double or Nothing poker however, you will make it to the money more often than in regular SNGs. This means that your bankroll will have less fluctuations over time and as a result you can make do with half the number of buyins in your bankroll as compared to regular SNGs. Below is an overview of bankroll requirements for DoN SNGs:

• Buyin: 5$ +0,5$ ; Bankroll requirement at least 137,5$

• Buyin: 10$ + 1$ ; Bankroll requirement at least 275$

• Buyin: 20$ + 2$ ; Bankroll requirement at least 550$

• Buyin: 30$ + 3$ ; Bankroll requirement at least 825$

When it comes to Double or Nothing bankroll management the usual rules apply. If your bankroll increases enough on the level you’re playing to cover the minimum bankroll requirements on the next level, good bankroll management tells you to that it is safe to move up in limits. On the other hand, if your bankroll decreases below the minimum bankroll requirements on the level you’re playing, good bankroll management tells you to move down in limits.

You could be posting your articles on the Poker Bankroll Blog. Read all about it here.

Check out our Poker Freeroll and Tournament League.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Bankroll Management

Double or nothing poker sit and go; the basics

Saturday, February 20th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Strategy, Poker Tournament | No Comments

This article belongs to the Poker Tournament series.

General introduction to Double or Nothing poker sit and goes

The Double or Nothing poker sit and go (often abbreviated as DoN SNG) is a relatively new form of the popular sit and go online poker tournament format characterized by a preset (most commonly 6 or 10) number of players each buying in to the sit and go with a fixed amount of money in exchange for a stack of chips.

As the Double or Nothing term implies,  you either double your buyin or walk away with nothing. In other words, if 10 players buyin with 5$ each, the top 5 finishes will win 10$ each. The payout structure of Double or Nothing SNGs is therefore very different from standard 10 player SNGs where 1st place usually wins 50% of the total prize pool, 2nd place takes 30% and 3rd place 20%.

This difference in payout structure means that you need to approach Double or Nothing SNGs with a different strategy in order to become a winning player in the long run.

The Independent Chip model

Before going into more detail with the basics of Double or Nothing sit and go strategy we will need an introduction to the Independent Chip Model (abbreviated ICM).

The Independent Chip model is a mathematical model constructed to give you an estimate of the monetary value of the chips you have in a MTT tournament or a SNG. The basic assumption of the Independent Chip model is that an individual player’s probability of winning the tournament is equal to the number of chips the player has divided by the total number of chips in play. So if you have 32% of the chips in play, your probability of winning is 32% and so on. Keep in mind that this is an underlying assumption of the ICM model and as such these probabilities of winning should only be treated as estimations. The ICM model will also calculate the probability a player has of finishing in all other places in the tournament based on his chipstack, the total number of chips in play and the chip distribution among the other players in the tournament.

By estimating the probabilities a player has of finishing in all the positions in a tournament the Independent Chip Model can assign a monetary value to the amount of chips you have. Here’s an example that demonstrates the principle:

You are playing a regular 10 person SNG and have the chip lead. Based on the amount of chips you have, the number of chips in play and the chip distribution of your opponents, the ICM model has estimated your placement probabilities as follows:

• 1st place; pays 50$ 55%
• 2nd place; pays 30$ 30%
• 3rd place; pays 20$ 15%

The monetary value of your chips at this particular stage in the SNG is then simply the sum of the placement probabilities multiplied by the prizes for each placement. In the example above this amounts to 39,5$ (0.55*50$ + 0.3*30$ + 0.15*20$).

The mathematics behind the ICM model are not overly complicated, but nevertheless totally unrealistic to calculate by yourself within the typical 30s time limit available on online tables. As a result there are several pieces of software available which can show your chip stack equity in real time. Simply Google “ICM calculator” and you will get a ton of hits.

Using the ICM model to formulate a winning DoN SNG strategy

Due to the flat prize pool structure in DoN SNGs, there is a big difference in the monetary value of increasing your chip stack as compared to regular SNGs and multi-table tournaments. If you for example end up all in early in a 10 player 10$ Double or Nothing sit and go and double your chip stack, the equity of your chip stack will only increase roughly 5$ from the 10$ starting point to 15$. The remaining 5$ equity from the player you knocked out is divided among the remaining players on the table. In order to make a profit in the long run from a 10$ bet where you win 5$, you need to have a probability of more than 67% to win the the bet (I have written a series of articles that explain more about the relationship between odds, probabilities and EV in poker). Therefore in Double or Nothing Sit and Goes, you should not enter a pot unless you more than 67% probability of winning the pot. This means that you should play tight and wait for good hands. Take advantage of those players who do not understand the mathematics of the game and as a result have a much wider range for calling.

What the ICM model basically tells us is that Double or Nothing poker is all about preserving your chip stack. As a consequence, calling raises with small pocket pairs aiming to hit a set or with suited connectors to hit draws are to be avoided when playing Double or Nothing poker. Calling in general is actually a bad move from a mathematical point of view in these SNGs. Your actions should be dominated by raising or folding.

Playing a large stack in Double or Nothing sit and goes.

If you manage to double your chip stack early on, the equity of your stack will be almost equal to the prize in the tournament. This means that gaining additional chips has almost no added monetary value and as a consequence from a mathematical point of view you should be folding all hands where you are not at least an 80% favorite of winning. This is even more true when you reach the bubble and have a larger than average chip stack. Remember it is not your job to eliminate players when you have a large stack. It is your job to finish in the top 5.

Playing a small stack in Double or Nothing sit and goes.

If you find yourself with a smaller than average chip stack during the middle or late stages of the tournament, picking up the blinds and antes becomes important. When stealing blinds in a DoN SNG, the trick is to pick out players who have decent size stacks and seem to know the mathematics behind the game. They will almost never call an all in from you because they know they have to be a more than 80% favorite in order to make the call. This is where the power of preserving your chip stack really comes into play. Notice also how the dynamics of a DoN SNG are very different compared to a MTT. In MTTs it is often mathematically correct for the chipleader to call short stack all ins with marginal hands.

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Double or nothing poker strategy

Friday, February 19th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Strategy, Poker Tournament | No Comments

Submitted by Steve, this article belongs to The Poker Strategy series.

In this article, Steve takes us through the basics of double or nothing SNGs and in particular double or nothing poker strategy.

Double or nothing poker introduction:

Before we get into the details of double or nothing poker strategy, let’s clarify one thing: Double or Nothings are SNGs in which half the players go home empty handed while the other half double up their buy-ins. Why do people play these SNGs? They’re excellent for bankroll building, on account of the increased odds they carry for each individual player. Technically speaking, a Double or Nothing is not that hot a proposition. However, for those with very flimsy bankrolls, these SNGs represent a good way to get their rolls out of the danger zone.

Why am I saying that Double or Nothings are not that great odds-wise? It’s simple mathematics really. If we leave the skill-factor aside, you have a 50% chance of making the money (it’s basically a coin-flip of a chance). If you apply good double or nothing poker strategy and make the money, you do not double up your buy-in. There’s the apparently insignificant matter of the tournament fee, which comes right out of your potential profits, and which kind of ruins the deal for you. Of course, in Double or Nothings your profits are supposed to come from those less skilled than yourself, those willing to give up their buy-ins on senseless calls. One of the advantages you have is that there are many people grinding away at these SNGs and many of them multi-table too. These guys won’t be able to pay as much attention to any one table as they should, so you may squeeze some additional value out of their presence at your table. You can also sign up for a rakeback or a poker prop deal to diminish the effects of the tournament fees.

Double or nothing poker strategy: the early stages:

Double or Nothings are SNGs, so you should use standard SNG strategy as your starting point. The early stages are about tightness and about some aggression. Be extremely demanding of your starting hands, and only commit on rock solid monsters. Keep your eye on your position and aim to preserve your stack. As your tournament life-blood and your only weapon at the Double or Nothing table, your stack will eventually decide whether or not you make it to the money. During the early stages, you’ll be folding a lot, and that gives you a great opportunity to study your opponents. Make your reads, put them on ranges and allow them to knock each other out.

Double or nothing poker strategy: the middle stages:

During the middle stages, you will have to loosen up. Stealing blinds is always important in a SNG and it’s no different in this case either. Keeping your opponents under pressure and stealing their blinds will allow you to maintain a stack size that will not put you in danger of extinction. When stealing blinds, position is the key factor. Don’t steal blinds from early position, or you’ll be the one to end up with the stolen goods. Try not to commit on rags from late position either. I know that blinds stealing is about making moves on less than stellar starting hands, but try to have at least a little bit of equity on your stealing hands, just in case.

Before reading the following section about double or nothing poker strategy, a short introduction to the “farmer” and “fox” terms is in place. As Steve explains, the “fox” is the kind of player who’s focused on winning the tourney, not on sailing into the money and then fading away. Because of that, in a regular tournament, he can take advantage of the bubble tightness of other players.
The “farmer” is a guy who aims for the money. This guy says his utmost goal sis to make it to the money. Once there, he’ll try to go as deep as he can, but because of his pre-bubble stance, he won’t be in a good position to do so.

Double or nothing poker strategy: the late stages:

Because once you make it to the money, the tournament is effectively over, adopting a “farmer” stance instead of a “fox” one during the late stages of the event may be the right way to go. In a regular SNG, I’d always recommend to go “fox” instead of ‘farmer” but in Double or Nothings, the farming poker strategy pays. 99% of players left in contention on the bubble will adopt the same approach though, which means that the tie-breaker here will be schooling. There’s no shame in ganging up on the weakling, and you’ll be required to do just that in order to burst that money bubble. It is obviously imperative that when you reach this stage, you’re not the weakling the other will gang up on.

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Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Strategy, Poker Tournament