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Observing poker opponents

Thursday, May 27th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games, Poker Strategy | 1 Comment

Submitted by Cory, this article belongs to the Poker Cash Games series.

Observing opponents is one of the key skills to hone as a poker player.  You need to notice what hands your opponents are showing down from which positions, how they bet, and their standard bet size etcetera.  The best time to make these observations is when you’re not in the hand.

When you’re in a pot, you have a personal vested interest on what you want the results to be.  If you’re trying to make a read in this situation, you’ll tend to put opponents on what you want them to have, in other words, any hand that you can still beat rather than what they really might have.  However, if you’re not in this pot, the outcome of the hand has little effect on you, so you’re better able to make a non-biased, logical assessment of what each player might hold.

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When you fold is the perfect time to engage yourself in the hand.  You might pick up a key body language tell that might help you when you are faced with a call for all of your chips with a marginal holding.  You may pick up a betting pattern where an opponent bets half pot when he wants a call and ¾ pot when he wants you to fold.  Players let far too much information just pass by after they fold because the football game on the big screen demands their attention once their hand is in the muck.  If they could only see how much money it costs them later on.

The tricky thing with tells is that the same reaction could mean the complete opposite when one person does it than another.  Many people who are weak tend to talk a lot more than normal.  I call this the nervous babble and it tends to happen in periods of high stress, the police pulled you over and you ramble on about how you were speeding because your mother is in the hospital and proceed to want to tell your whole life story, or going out on a date with the prettiest most popular girl at school.  However, with other people, they just like to talk a lot, so the nervous babble is less reliable and some people who normally talk a lot completely shut down when they’re bluffing.

Another great tell is the way people place chips in to the pot.  However, so many people know about the strong is weak and weak is strong system of tells they are often reversed or reverse reversed, but against novices it is still very effective.

One of my all-time favorites is when a player bets, it’s up to me to act and the player behind me is cutting out a big raise when it’s still my turn.  This means he’s almost never raising and is likely calling if I call and almost 100% of the time folding if I raise.  I see this so much on my live tables that I make it a point to get this player on my left because I know when he cuts out chips while the action is on me I can safely call with a draw and raise with a hand I want to isolate.

Observation is also paramount online.  Sometimes with the distractions of home and six tables, picking up on things can be a little more difficult than not watching the cocktail waitresses or sports on TV at a live casino, but is still required nonetheless.  Though body language clues are absent from the on line game, you still need to be paying attention to bet sizing and getting an idea of how your opponents value their hands.

Online tells become more of a question of based on your previous history with this player are they capable of showing down specific hands in a certain spot.  If a very tight player raises from UTG are they capable of having K9D, probably not, so if the board comes out K, 9, 2, you don’t really need to worry about them having two pair against your Ace King.

If you practice your reading skills on line just trying to narrow down your opponent’s possible range in each hand, when you play live you can use this same information and also add in the prospect of physical tells and opponent observation becomes a huge edge that very few players are taking full advantage of.

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Try it next time you play.  Block out all other stimuli and you’ll be amazed at how easy that fold was when you just know your opponent is showing strength based on your impartial observations.  Just see how many pots that you thought were easy folds become great stealing opportunities because you noticed that bet has always meant weakness.  Tells and betting patterns are not meant to be noticed just when you’re in the hand, but their meant to be picked up on when you’re not in the hand and taken advantage of when you’re money is at stake.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games, Poker Strategy

Full Tilt Poker bonus code by Poker Bankroll Blog

Monday, May 24th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Bonus | No Comments

This article belongs to the Poker Bonus series.

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Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Bonus

Beating the rake in cash games

Friday, May 21st, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games, Poker Rakeback | 2 Comments

Submitted by Cory, this article belongs to the Poker Cash Games series.

If you play in low stakes games, you need to be more aware of how the rake effects how you should play.  My bread and butter game is currently $1-$2 no limit.  One of the major reasons I’m able to come out ahead consistently in this game is because I’m always cognizant of how I need to adjust my strategy with the rake as a factor.  Rooms vary significantly on how they get their cut, but if you’re playing in a low stakes live game, the rake is often going to be as much as 10% of the pot and this should help you beat it.

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This is how the rake in my favorite room works.  If a flop is seen $4 gets dropped.  It doesn’t matter if the pot is $10 or $100.  Plus if you win a pot most times you’re going to tip $1.  So, it costs you $5 to win a pot.  Let’s say you lose $10 in a pot, you’ll need to win $15 to get even.  This can be kind of tough.  Here are some ways that will help you climb that mountain.

Play even tighter from early position.  Often times in cash games it’s pretty standard to limp from middle position with suited connectors and suited aces.  Watch out though, in a small game this might not be a great idea.  Even if your dream happens and you see a six way flop with 87S for just $2 you’re thinking that you’ve got $12 in the pot, remember you actually only have $8 in the pot and if you win and tip, it’s only $7.  So even given your immediate pot odds 7:2 or 3.5:1 is just over half the price you were getting if you were in a game with no rake or tip.

The even bigger problem is if you limped in with this hand from early or middle position, it’s going to be much more difficult for you to get the maximum value if you should flop big.  If you flop the nuts, do you lead out?  Do you check raise?  Do you check call and lead the turn?  Do you check call and try to check raise the turn?  It’s very difficult not to completely polarize your range when playing out of position.

On line the rake is more player friendly, generally running at about 5%.  If you’re playing $1-$2 live, in order to match the 5% rake and tip, each pot you win will have to be $100 or more.  If you can get the pot over $100, you’ve maxed out the rake and the additional money you win is free.  That’s why if you’re going to play drawing hands, you must be in position so you have the best chance of building that huge pot when you flop the joint.

The next thing is don’t worry so much about the small pots.  If you’re playing $5-$10, taking down a small pot can pay for your gas and dinner.  At $1-$2 taking down a small pot is just allowing the casino to make their four or five bucks off you and get to the next hand quicker.  Of course sometimes you’re going to win a small pot when you flop big and don’t get any action, but don’t go after them.  If the pot is $6 and your opponent bets $2 you probably don’t have to call with that gut shot and over.  The pay off just isn’t going to be big enough as often as you’d need it to be.

Make sure you win more than your fare share of big pots.  If you play tight chances are you’re going to have the best of it more often than not when a big pot develops.  If the majority of pots that you win are $100 or more, you’ll beat the rake.  Keep in mind that you’re not going to be taking down monster pots very often, but if the game only costs $3 an orbit; you’ve got time to wait.  If you can average about a big pot every hour or so, you’ll be in good shape.  Remember, this is average, you’re not going to win a big pot once an hour, just like you’re not going to get aces on every 221st hand exactly, but sometimes you’ll drag two or three pots in an hour, other times you’ll go two or three hours without playing a hand.

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The casino is taking about a rack off the table every hour.  Think of them as your tenth opponent who is guaranteed to take $100 an hour.  How would you play this opponent?  Very tight and very aggressive.  You’d build huge pots when you have the best of it and fold when your hand or the pot isn’t worth contesting.  If you do this you’ll see a nice little win rate start to develop and you won’t be throwing away money to the house.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games

Why you should build a statistical model for betting baseball

Thursday, May 20th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Sports and Fantasy betting | No Comments

Submitted by Alex, this article belongs to the Sports and Fantasy betting series.

Alex is a fantasy betting expert (compared to me at least) who has recently joined forces with one of the top fantasy betting sites, namely FanDuel. Alex has been kind enough to write some general sports and fantasy betting articles.

In fantasy betting your opponents are other sports bettors and the format resembles the SNG (Sit and Go)  and MTT (Multi Table Tournament) formats found on poker sites.  Briefly, the object of fantasy betting competitions  is to pick a team of players within a certain sport given certain restrictions (usually an overall salary cap). Depending on your player’s performances during the games played, you score points counting towards your overall placement in the competition.

Lots of people will try to sell you on the idea of using systems or angles for betting baseball.  Some will be simple: for example, always bet on the home underdog.  Others will be far more complex, introducing a variety of criteria or filters for determining whether a team is worth betting on.  For example, bet against a team with a losing road record in the final game of a series.  While there can be some validity to some of these patterns, they can rarely be used for long term profitable betting.

The problem is that in most cases, the patterns used to ‘prove’ that the system works have not existed over a long enough sample size to provide statistically meaningful results.  Or they’ve been discovered by data mining or ‘cherry picking’ what has happened to work best in the past.  Using that approach does a much better job of predicting the past than predicting the future.

In the rare instances when there truly was enough of a bias in the betting ‘market’ to yield a valid angle, once the statistical data accumulates enough to be meaningful, other bettors will discover it, exploit it, and remove the inefficiency from the market…often making it a ‘play against’ in the future.

So if angles and systems don’t work, how should you approach sports betting?  By building a statistical model.  Typically created in Excel or a dedicated statistical analysis software package, models are basically your attempt to simulate or calculate the likelihood of various outcomes in a sporting event.  The advantage of using them is that once you model what you think the odds of various outcomes are, you can compare them to what the market (in the form of the odds) says will happen and limit your bets to situations where there’s value in the form of a positive expectation bet.

In addition, if your statistical model is based on the players in each team’s lineup (as it should be), then you can use it to attack less efficient markets, such as daily fantasy sports.  Your opponents won’t be using such sophisticated techniques, and over the long haul you’ll be able to grind out some serious profits.

Check out fantasy betting at FanDuel

Tags: Poker Articles, Sports and Fantasy betting

Understanding the Baseball Money Line

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Sports and Fantasy betting | No Comments

Submitted by Alex, this article belongs to the Sports and Fantasy betting series.

Alex is a fantasy betting expert (compared to me at least) who has recently joined forces with one of the top fantasy betting sites, namely FanDuel. Alex has been kind enough to write some general sports and fantasy betting articles.

In fantasy betting your opponents are other sports bettors and the format resembles the SNG (Sit and Go)  and MTT (Multi Table Tournament) formats found on poker sites.  Briefly, the object of fantasy betting competitions  is to pick a team of players within a certain sport given certain restrictions (usually an overall salary cap). Depending on your player’s performances during the games played, you score points counting towards your overall placement in the competition.

Most betting on baseball uses the money line rather than a point spread.  That means that you’re betting on who will win the game, not on how much they’ll win by.  Typically the odds will be listed for both teams in a game.  They’ll appear something like this:  Yankees – 200, Blue Jays +180.  That means that you’ll have to bet $200 to win $100 on the Yankees (if they win), while you’d only have to bet $100 to win $180 on the Blue Jays (if they win).

The casino makes it’s money on ‘the vigorish (vig)’.  That’s the difference in the odds on each side.  By balancing the amount of money bet on each side, the sportsbook can ensure that they’ll make a profit no matter what the outcome of the sporting event.  The initial line created by the sportsbook is based on what they anticipate the public perception of the event’s likely outcome to be.  As people begin to bet, they may move the line in an attempt to balance out the betting on each side.  Ultimately, this results in the closing line being the most accurate predictor of the event’s outcome, and the entire sports betting market being quite efficient.  All it take is one really sharp gambler with a large bankroll, and most of the potential profit for everyone else disappears from the market, as the line at the sportsbook will move to the ‘correct’ point.

A far less efficient (and more exploitable) market is the daily fantasy sports market.  These games are similar to sports betting in the sense that you’re making a wager on the outcome of sports events, and winning (or losing) that day, based on the result.  However, instead of betting ‘against the house’, you’re selecting an opponent and betting against that one person.  As long as that single person isn’t more knowledgeable than you, you’re at an advantage.  And you’re picking a lineup of players (rather than just a team), which introduces a greater degree of skill to the games.  To top it off, these games are completely legal in the United States, allowing deposit by Paypal or credit card and withdrawal by Paypal or check.

Check out fantasy betting at FanDuel

Tags: Poker Articles, Sports and Fantasy betting

Can you guarantee sports betting success by using a progressive betting system?

Sunday, May 16th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Sports and Fantasy betting | No Comments

Submitted by Alex, this article belongs to the Sports and Fantasy betting series.

Alex is a fantasy betting expert (compared to me at least) who has recently joined forces with one of the top fantasy betting sites, namely FanDuel. Alex has been kind enough to write some general sports and fantasy betting articles.

In fantasy betting your opponents are other sports bettors and the format resembles the SNG (Sit and Go)  and MTT (Multi Table Tournament) formats found on poker sites.  Briefly, the object of fantasy betting competitions  is to pick a team of players within a certain sport given certain restrictions (usually an overall salary cap). Depending on your player’s performances during the games played, you score points counting towards your overall placement in the competition.

Many people will try to tell you that you can guarantee success at sports betting by using a progressive betting system such as a Martingale system.  These systems involved making a series of bets, with the amount escalating after each losing bet, until you win and achieve your desired profit.  For example, let’s say your target profit is $10.  You make a $5 bet.  If you lose, you’re down $5, so now you need to bet $7.50 to reach your target.  If you lose again, you’re down $12.50.  Now you need to bet $11.25 to reach your target.  The lure of these systems is that given an unlimited bankroll, unlimited betting limits, and unlimited time, you’re eventually guaranteed to reach your target.  Rinse and repeat, and it’s only a matter of time until you’re a millionaire.

So does this actually work?  If it sounds too good to be true, that’s because it IS too good to be true.  The problem is that nobody has an unlimited bankroll and no games have an unlimited bet size.  Eventually you’re going to hit a long losing streak, and when you do, you’re eventually going to be unable to make a large enough bet to hit your target profit in one shot.

So what about more complex progressive systems?  The most popular of these currently is promoted by John Morrison.  These sports betting systems involve following a series of rules for determining what bet to make, but the bet sizing still gets progressively larger in order to hit the profit target in one shot.  These still do not work!  If the betting rules don’t yield a profitable expectation on their own, using them progressively isn’t going to change that.  Generally speaking, the rules don’t change the nature of the game…they just obfuscate the issue.  Many of those promoting these systems are well aware that they’re selling garbage, and realize that without the complexity of the betting rules, many potential suckers will see right through them.  Others don’t understand the principles of statistical testing and probability, and genuinely believe they’ve hit on the Holy Grail of profitable sports betting.

In any case, no progressive betting system can turn a loser into a winner.  You’re better off learning shop for ‘bad’ lines at the sportsbooks, or learning to handicap an inefficient market like daily fantasy contests.

Check out fantasy betting at FanDuel

Tags: Poker Articles, Sports and Fantasy betting

How to deal with poker fish

Saturday, May 15th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games | No Comments

Submitted by Cory, this article belongs to the Poker Cash Games series.

Cory wrote this great article on how to deal with poker fish in order to maximize your winnings against them. Basically it’s all about treating poker as your business and the poker fish as your customers. Great stuff Cory!!

A few of the biggest super stars in poker have made a name for themselves by insulting other players at the table during televised tournaments.  Unfortunately the general public who gets in to poker via TV broadcasts thinks this is just how good players should treat bad players when the bad players get lucky and win.  However, these poker fans, turned rounders are forgetting some key factors.

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First, the TV players are almost always playing tournaments where the poker fish can’t ask for a table change, or just get up and cash in their chips.  Most other poker players are likely playing cash games where they benefit from keeping the easy money at the table.

The second thing is the rounder at the local card room isn’t performing for a television audience.  Whether or not you enjoy the antics of these opinionated players, it raises the profile of the sites they represent.  Thing is, you and I aren’t representing poker sites.  Poker is our job and the card room is our office.

Just think of how house games at casinos work.  The casino spreads a game like blackjack which has a very small edge for the house, so the player might win some hands, maybe even have some big winning nights.  However, the casino knows that regardless of how much a blackjack player wins, the house will get it all back and then some.  Why else do you think the casino comps the big table game winner’s room and meals?  They want this guy to stick around and keep playing blackjack, because it’s just a matter of time before they win all of his money back.

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If you’re the better poker player, you need to have this same approach.  When a poor player draws out on you, tell him nice hand, don’t quote the odds and tell him how bad he plays, it’s bad for business.  If you beat the fish in a large pot, tell him how he played it right and you just got lucky.  It is your responsibility to make sure that your opponents are having a good time and enjoying losing their money to you.  I’ve even gone as far as buying a round of cocktails for the whole table to get a couple guys who were racking up to stay longer.  This little trick has paid dividends.

Most poker players are coming and losing.  Give them the entertainment they are paying for and they’ll come pay you to give them a fun night out more frequently.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games

Folding in cash games

Thursday, May 13th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games | No Comments

Submitted by Cory, this article belongs to the Poker Cash Games series.

The thoughts behind folding in cash games are very different to folding in tournaments because of the missing element of the ever increasing blinds. In this article, Cory takes us through the basics thoughts behind folding in deep stack cash games.

Deep stacked cash games are all about post flop playing. You rarely need to play a huge pot pre-flop because your real money is made on the later betting rounds. Here’s an example of a hand that I played yesterday that illustrates what I mean.

I’m in middle position on a ten handed table on line. I open for a 3.5X raise with Jacks, the first hand I had picked up in over an hour, and the player immediately on my left who hadn’t 3 bet one time in the two-and-a-half hours that I was on the table with him reraises pot. Two players call before it gets back to me.

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My thinking is, the absolute worst I can expect the player who three bets on my left to have is AK, but then two other players, who each had to know that this player wasn’t three betting decided to cold call. This makes hands like Tens or Jacks look like pretty weak holdings.

With my logic, my Jacks could be beat in two spots and flipping with another. Even though the pot was large, I still wasn’t getting a good price to call with my Jacks and I folded them without hesitation. Our stacks were not quite deep enough for me to call hoping to flop a set and stack somebody. My read was proven correct when the board came with three rags and AA and QQ got it all in. So I in fact was beat in two spots.

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If you’re transitioning from tournaments, especially lower buy-in live tournaments, or the shorter stacked on line variety, folding a hand as strong as JJ pre-flop can seem a little crazy and when you’re 20 BBs deep, it is pretty crazy, but a hundred or more big blinds deep, it’s still not fun, but it’s relatively easy to let a hand like Jacks or Tens hit the muck before the flop. Not having to worry about escalating blinds really opens you up to patiently waiting for very big hands that can get paid off. Only gamble on your terms in cash games.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games

High Pulse Poker rakeback and freerolls

Saturday, May 8th, 2010 | Poker Bonus, Poker Freeroll, Poker Rakeback, Poker Room | No Comments

This article belongs to the Poker Room series

I recently came across High Pulse Poker and liked their approach to online poker. The following is a short review on High Pulse Poker, High Pulse Poker rakeback and High Pulse Poker freerolls.

In addition you will find information on how to get the password for the 200$ “Welcome to High Pulse” freeroll hosted by my buddies at WOSB.com on Sunday the 9th of May at 20:00 GMT.

In order to get the password for the 200$ High Pulse Poker Freeroll you need to sign up through The Poker BankRoll Blog for a High Pulse Poker account. By doing so you will automatically receive the best High Pulse Poker rakeback deal available (see details below)

1. Create a High Pulse Poker account by clicking on this link: High Pulse Poker
2. Remember to use the “pokerbrb” bonus code when you sign up to get the best High Pulse Poker rakeback deal
3. To find the WOSB.com freeroll in the High Pulse software click “Tourneys” and then “Private”
4. We will reveal the password for the WOSB “Welcome to High Pulse” 200$ freeroll 30 minutes before the freeroll starts at 21.00 (GMT+1)
5. To get the password keep an eye on this forum thread on the PokerBRB and WOSB forum.

High Pulse Poker is a new and ambitious Malta based poker site owned by Danish entrepreneurs.  Their plan to improve the online poker experience by focusing 100% on a user friendly interface and a simple rakeback system. High Pulse Poker are building up their own poker network from scratch.

Unfortunately High Pulse Poker will not be allowed for US players.

High Pulse Poker rakeback will be paid out according to the following rakeback sheme:

• Weekly rake: 500$+              50% rakeback
• Weekly rake: 100$-499$      40% rakeback
• Weekly rake: 25$-99$           30% rakeback
• Weekly rake: 5$-24$             20% rakeback
• Weekly rake: under 5$          10% rakeback

High Pulse Poker freerolls every 15 minutes:

• $10 freeroll every 15 minutes
• $20 freeroll every hour
• $50 freeroll every day at  12:00, 18:00, 24:00, 06:00 (GMT + 1)
• $250 freeroll every day at 20:00 (GMT + 1)
• $500 freeroll every Sunday 20:00 (GMT + 1)
• $1000 freeroll every 1st of each month

High Pulse Poker is currently running in beta-test mode

Pending their Maltese license issue, High Pulse Poker is running in beta-test mode. Some software glitches are to be expected. As soon as they receive their license, all money won in beta-mode will be converted to real money which can be withdrawn.

In order to withdraw your money, follow the simple steps below:

1) Validate your personal email account

2) Make a real money deposit of minimum 20 USD in order for us to verify where to transfer a cash out of Beta Winnings

3) You can cash out your ‘Beta Winnings’ immediately after making the 20 USD real money deposit

4) An official ‘cash out policy’ will be available upon Real Money Launch in 2010

Tags: Poker Bonus, Poker Freeroll, Poker Rakeback, Poker Room

Live poker cash game selection

Thursday, May 6th, 2010 | Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games | 2 Comments

Submitted by Cory, this article belongs to the Poker Cash Games series.

Playing online poker makes certain things much easier than live poker.  Anything from hand history data bases to game selection.  To find good games on the internet, I just need to open my Full Tilt client and look at the tables for whatever stake I want to play, find the best average pot size with too many players going to the flop and get myself on the waiting list for that table.  Live it’s just not that easy.  Here are some things to help you improve your live cash game selection.

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First, find a live cash game that’s comfortable for your bankroll with a reasonable blind and rake structure.  If you’re playing low stakes, $1-$2 for example, this might be difficult to do, but it may be the single most important consideration.

About forty-five minutes from my house is a card room that spreads a $2-$2 game with a $100 max and drops $5 per hand.  So in this game, the small blind is equal to the big blind, costing me an extra dollar per orbit, $5 is coming out of every pot I win, plus a tip for the dealer, so it costs me $6 to win a pot and I’m only allowed to buy fifty big blinds at a time.  Also, the $4 from the blinds is dropped every hand, regardless of whether or not we see a flop.

About half an hour in the other direction from my house is a card room that spreads a $1-$2 game with a $200 max buy-in where $4 per hand is raked, but with a, “no flop no drop,” rule.  In this game, the small blind is indeed smaller than the big blind, I’m paying $1 less in rake for every pot I win and the house isn’t taking a cut of hands that don’t see a flop.  Which game do you suppose I can make more money in?

If I’m using good live cash game selection I’m obviously going to play in the second game, even if I enjoy the first poker room more.  Poker is about making money and making money is my business as a poker player, I need to play in the game that will give me the highest return on my investment.

Once I’m in the casino I sign up on the list for my $1-$2 no limit hold ‘em game, then I go scout the tables.  Just have a quick look around and see how many big stacks each $1-$2 game has, how many are taking a flop, are most players aggressive or passive etc.  If by chance, the first seat opens up at the only table with six tight, short stacked players and two tough players, I will sit down, buy in, play tight and immediately ask for a table change.  Asking for a table change is totally OK and not rude to the floor staff, or the players at the table you are wishing to leave.

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If I get seated at a pretty good table, but I’ve watched the $1-$2 game on table four and it’s way more fishy, I’ll ask the floor to give me a table change as soon as a seat opens on table four.

Game selecting might be a bit more difficult live than on line, but it is still one of the most important factors that go in to a winning session or a losing session.  Stop just accepting the first seat that opens up, unless it’s the seat you’ve already determined to be on your dream table.

Tags: Poker Articles, Poker Cash Games